The latest COVID-19 wave in the U.S. appears to have peaked and started retreating, but concerns over a new variant are always lurking.
Several COVID-19 metrics – including hospital admissions and emergency department visits – are showing a decline. Wastewater viral activity levels, which represent both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, remain high but are trending downward in all regions except the South, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Data indicates the latest increase in COVID-19 activity was significantly lower – and significantly less dangerous – than the COVID-19 surges the U.S. saw early in the pandemic. New weekly hospital admissions, for example, peaked most recently at nearly 35,000 in early January. That’s compared to an all-time record of more than 150,000 in January 2022.
“The good news of COVID is that the impact of COVID has significantly reduced in recent years, and so we’re not seeing as many hospitalizations, as many ICU admissions, as many deaths,” Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization, said during an event earlier this month.
But, she added, COVID-19 still causes a “significant burden.”
“It’s hard to articulate and communicate that we’re in a better situation, but we’re not out of the woods yet,” she said.
Given declines in testing and data reporting, it’s impossible to know how many Americans were infected during the recent uptick. But while COVID-19 is causing severe disease less frequently than it once was, weekly death totals still have routinely topped 1,000 to 2,000 in recent months.
There are also concerns beyond just surviving a coronavirus infection, such as long COVID and the risks posed by reinfection.
“This virus is circulating in every country, and people are getting reinfected multiple times,” Van Kerkhove said. “So we’re not only worried about the acute disease and causing death right away, we’re worried about post-COVID condition, and we’re worried about repeat infection in the long term – so five, 10, 20 years from now on organ function.”
The risks of long COVID and reinfection may see renewed attention in the U.S. as the CDC is reportedly considering dropping its five-day isolation guidance for people who test positive for the coronavirus. Officials told The Washington Post that the White House hasn’t yet approved the guidance change, which is expected to be floated for public feedback in April.
Meanwhile, as is always the case with COVID-19, there’s the possibility a new variant could change everything.
Globally and in the U.S., JN.1 dominates. It’s an omicron subvariant that is closely related to BA.2.86, or “pirola.”
JN.1 was responsible for more than 9 in 10 new COVID-19 infections in the U.S. in recent weeks, according to CDC estimates. The agency said JN.1 contributed to the burden of COVID-19 this winter, but added that its spread “does not appear to pose additional risks to public health beyond that of other recent variants.”
As of last week, the CDC was tracking and analyzing a new variant that hadn’t yet appeared in the U.S.: BA.2.87.1. The strain had only been found in South Africa so far.
“The fact that only nine cases have been detected in one country since the first specimen was collected in September suggests it does not appear to be highly transmissible – at least so far,” the CDC said in a post about the strain.
So why is the agency keeping an eye on this variant? Because it has highly mutated, with more than 30 changes in the spike protein of the coronavirus compared with XBB.1.5, which is the virus variant targeted by the latest vaccines.
“In the past year, several variants have had significant changes in their spike protein. Yet despite those changes, existing immunity from vaccines and previous infections still provides good protection,” the CDC said. “We don’t yet know how well existing immunity holds up against BA.2.87.1.
“However, our immune systems now have several years of experience with this virus and vaccines, generally providing protection against a wide range of variants.”
link
